I expect the Brewers to continue the momentum of a strike-shortened 1981 season and win the American League East in 1982. That said, if they aren’t successful, one or more of these five things will likely be the culprit(s):
1) Paul Molitor can’t stay healthy. The young shortstop turned second baseman turned center fielder turned third baseman is on the verge of super stardom. The one thing keeping Molitor from reaching his full potential is health. More specifically, a lack of health. In his first three seasons in the league, Molitor never played in more than 140 games. In fact, he only managed 125 and 111 in the other two. Last season, he was bothered by ankle problems, thereby making his adjustment to a new position all the more difficult. He played in only 64 of the Brewers’ 109 games. Assuming Roy Howell isn’t traded by opening day, the trio of Molitor, Howell and Don Money makes third base the deepest position on the team. Still, the Brewers will not be as successful with Howell or Money manning the hot corner.
2) Ted Simmons continues a rapid career decline. It’s tough to tell if Simmons’ 1981 was simply a down year or a sign that the end is near. But Simmons is a catcher, and a catcher who had played in 89 major league games before he turned 21. From 1971 through 1980, Simmons never played in fewer than 123 games or had a batting average below .272. In 1981, he hit .216. Given the mileage on his knees, Simmons’ career may indeed be nearing the end.
3) Mike Caldwell is ineffective and the Brewers don’t have enough starting pitching. During the 1978 and 1979 seasons, Mike Caldwell was dominant and the ace of the Brewers staff. He won 22 games in 1978 and 16 in 1979 while posting minuscule ERA’s of 2.36 and 3.29, respectively. He was still solid the last two seasons, but not dominant, winning 13 and 11 games with ERA’s around 4.00. This spring, though, the coaching staff is concerned. He does not look like the same pitcher who even donned a Brewers uniform last season. If he doesn’t get himself straightened out, the Brewers have an ace in Pete Vuckovich and decent pitchers in Caldwell, Haas, McClure and Lerch. But it’s not a championship staff. Caldwell’s success is critical, and even if he does turn things around another starter may be needed.
4) Right field tandem of Charlie Moore and Mark Brouhard is ineffective. Mark Brouhard has looked every bit the player in camp that the Brewers thought he would become. But it’s only spring training, and his .274 average and two home runs last season aren’t anything special. If he fails, Charlie Moore has been assured a shot in right field. Moore hit .301 last season and has hit around .300 for three straight seasons. But he’s been a bit player and mainly a catcher during that time. Will his hitting suffer as an outfielder? Right field is easily the weakest offensive position on this team heading into the season and it can’t be a liability.
5) The bullpen, other than Rollie Fingers, is a bust. Rollie Fingers is one of the finest pitchers and players in all of baseball. He won both the AL MVP and Cy Young awards last season. Assuming age and injury don’t catch the 35-year-old Fingers in 1982, he’ll remain dominant. But who else is in the bullpen? Jim Slaton is dependable. If not for his guaranteed three-year contract, the Brewers would never hold onto Jerry Augustine. Dwight Bernard was effective in the second half last season, but he has been a disaster this spring. There are some young pitchers who have promise, but they are unproven and likely won’t get a shot until the old guard fails first. The unknown in this area may indeed be this team’s downfall.
What do you think? What factor will keep the Brewers from winning the AL East this season?